NBA Conference Finals preview: Gotta love the Association

For all of the criticism that the NBA takes-- for a supposedly lackluster regular season, for prevalent lazy play, for rampantly egotistical superstars-- no one can criticize it for lack of intrigue.  There are more captivating stars, more storylines, more compelling personalities, and, in my opinion, more spectacular athleticism on display.  There is an argument that can easily be made for the NFL, but in my less-than-humble opinion, the NBA is the best professional league in American sports.  I scarcely, if ever, miss a game, a statement that becomes even more true as the end of the season fast approaches.

Today, the 2011-2012 NBA season approaches a climax after a season marred by a lockout and contractual disputes.  Happily, all of that is behind us, and one could not ask for two more intriguing matchups for the conforence finals.  So, without any further ado...

Eastern Conference Finals:  Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

The good guys versus the bad guys; the old guard versus the next generation; a franchise steeped in decades of championship-caliber tradition versus the one that engineered the grossly trendy group that guaranteed "not one... not two... not three..." championships.  Long forgotten is the fact that the first group on which the title "Big Three was ever bestowed and used frequently was actually Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen when the Celtics brought the group together via some offseason trading wizardry that made the Boston instant title contenders.  That group brought another championship to Beantown in 2008, and serves as the gold standard for any triad of teammates that might warrant the label "big three" ever again.  The chemistry and unselfishness that the group has displayed in not only winning and winning quickly but also in remaining relevant long after their best years are behind them is impressive and commendable.

Let me say, in the interest of full discretion, that LeBron James is my favorite basketball player on the planet, and that I take each criticism of him as cowardly or un-clutch as a far more personal annoyance than perhaps I should.  Thus, I am rooting wholeheartedly for the Chosen One to win his first championship at the same age that Michael Jordan first did, to silence his many doubters and to raise a banner in Miami, as much as I detest the idea that Pat Riley's scheme to lure a trifecta of all-world players should succeed.  I have long since forgiven my favorite player for the abomination that was the Miami Heat welcome party of last year following the ill-advised "Decision" televised by ESPN.  I want the media to give the world's best player the credit he deserves; I want three MVP's to be validated by a first championship; I want Skip Bayless, in all of his bold idiocy and unapologetic ignorance, to eat his words and stop doing his best impression of a diluted Dwyane Wade fanboy.  If LeBron should lose again, and take the full brunt of criticism for what is a very flawed team, do not be surprised if I make a video much resembling the famous "Leave Britney Alone" Youtube classic.  If you are an avid basketball fan, you not only know that LeBron James is the best player on the planet by no small margin, but that he has been a clutch player throughout his career:  last year's finals were the aberration, not the rule.

MIAMI HEAT
PG - Mario Chalmers  11.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1 spg
SG - Dwyane Wade  23.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2 spg
SF - LeBron James  29 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 5.9 apg, 2.5 spg
PF - Shane Battier  4.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1 spg
C - Ronny Turiaf  2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.1 apg, 0.9 bpg
Key substitutes:  Udonis Haslem (PF), Joel Anthony (C), Mike Miller (SG), Norris Cole (PG)
Injuries:  Chris Bosh (PF)

BOSTON CELTICS
PG - Rajon Rondo  15.3 ppg, 12.3 apg, 6.7 rpg, 2.7 spg
SG - Ray Allen  9.9 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.8 spg
SF - Paul Pierce  19.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.5 spg
PF - Brandon Bass  11.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.6 bpg
C - Kevin Garnett  19.2 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.5 bpg
Key substitutes:  Mickael Pietrus (SG), Ryan Hollins (C), Keyon Dooling (SG)
Injuries:  Avery Bradley (SG)

The lack of depth for the Heat, especially without Chris Bosh, would absolutely be a concern for Miami, except that Boston not only has even less depth but is considerably older.  If there is a combination of bigs that inspires less confidence than Ronny Turiaf and Joel Anthony of Miami, then it is Ryan Hollins and Greg Stiemsma of Boston.  That said, if the Heat have the two best players in this series in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, then the Celtics likely have at least three through seven is Rondo, Garnett, Pierce, Bass, and Allen, respectively.  Rajon Rondo is the best all-around point guard in the league; his playoff splits, given above, are testament to that.  While there are certainly more glamorous players at the position (Rose, Paul, and Deron Williams all come immediately to mind), Rondo is now the league's best passer and is a premiere rebounder from his position.  It has been speculated, most famously by ESPN's John Hollinger, that the Heat, having dispatched the Pacers, have earned what amounts to a bye to the NBA finals.  While I agree that Indiana was probably the best challenger remaining in the conference after Derrick Rose's ACL injury (get well, my man), this just isn't the case.  How can so-called experts so consistently undervalue not only Rondo, who was never even touted as a member of the big three but has far surpassed his counterparts and is the team's true catalyst, but also Garnett, who is averaging nearly 20 and 10 in these playoffs, and Pierce, who is the definition of a closer?  I don't believe that a team as old as Boston can beat a team as spry as Miami with so few quality players coming off the bench, but this is not the four-game series that some people are speculating about.  I'm taking the Heat in six games, with Garnett reigning supreme against the Heat's piecemeal frontcourt and Rondo providing enough spark to extend the series.  In the end, though, the Celtics will have to try to make do with Pietrus or Pierce on James, and with Avery Bradley shelved, will struggle to guard Wade also.  This is not a recipe for success, especially when those players have few subs to look to for a significant rest in their tall task.  Miami rolls.

Western Conference Finals:  San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder


It has been widely speculated (as I don't have to just yet, I won't make any such assertion) that the winner of this series will also win in the next series, with relative ease, and be crowned 2012 NBA champions.  This is a distinct possibility.  The top two seeds in the Western Conference were also the top two teams in the league in the regular season, and will enter game one of their series on Sunday night having lost just one game between them in these playoffs thus far (the Thunder fell in game three to the Los Angeles Lakers before prevailing in the series, 4-1).  The Spurs in particular have been impressive, boasting the league's best record for the second year in a row and, at this particular joint, eighteen consecutive wins.  This is a blockbuster series filled with blockbuster players, and has an excellent chance to be the trademark series not only for these 2012 playoffs but for a rising Thunder dynasty or a dwindling Spurs one.

At first glance, it seems very difficult to pick against the Spurs.  They have the league's best coach in Gregg Popovich, far and away the deepest roster of any remaining team, and the nucleus of what has been the closest thing that the Association has had to a dynasty in the 21st century.  Tim Duncan is still operating at an incredibly high level, Manu Ginobli is finally-- FINALLY-- at full health come playoff time (this is not a jinx, I swear), and Tony Parker is still a bouncy, 29 year old point guard who many outside of San Antonio do not fully realize was one of the top three point guards in the league this year and a legitimate MVP candidate, if ever Mr. LeBron James is no longer eligible to win that award.  Outside of that, San Antonio has probably five other players, six if you stretch, who could start for the Thunder.  Eighteen consecutive wins, an elite coach, top point guard, a true elite center, and a plethora of capable bench players:  one might wonder if any remaining team stands any chance at standing between this well-oiled machine and another championship.

Trust me, they do.  Led by Kevin Durant, who is now three times the scoring champion at age 23, Russell Westbrook, whose rise from an 8 point-per-game, hyper-athletic underachiever at UCLA to one of the NBA's most electric guards, and James Harden, the sixth man of the year and a player who calls back memories of a young Ginobli (although with a far more impressive beard), the Thunder are infinitely younger, more athletic, and arguably more talented, at this stage, than the Spurs, and not devoid of playoff experience despite their relative infancy.  In these playoffs thus far, they have dispatched the previous two NBA champions with ease, sweeping the Mavericks and losing only one game to Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.  They have inside presence defensively (Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins), plenty of energy players (Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison, and Nazr Mohammed), and two players that they can expect to regularly shine in crunch time, even if their coexistence is at times inharmonious or conducive to inefficient offense.  They have the greatest home court advantage in the league and perhaps in the four major sports.  And, now, they have Derek Fisher, who brings exactly the veteran presence that the Lakers apparently missed and that has been a boon for the Lakers and for Westbrook specifically.  Perhaps too much attention is given to the "big three" in Miami and not enough to the combination of Durant, Westbrook, and Harden in Oklahoma City, though Durant's quiet humility would never allow him to accept such a title.

San Antonio won the season series 2-1, but, as SB Nation's Matt Conner points out, two of these meetings came prior to the All Star break, and the cast of characters now is entirely different from the ones that met then.  This is a heavyweight bout, destined to go the distance.  Duncan, Parker, and Popovich won't let the Spurs lose, but then again, will Durant and Westbrook?  I have a hard time fathoming that, barring the unforeseen, this series would go fewer than seven games, and certainly not fewer than six.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
PG - Tony Parker  19.1 ppg, 7.1 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1 spg
SG - Danny Green  10.4 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.6 spg
SF - Kawhi Leonard  8.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.6 apg, 1.5 spg
PF - Boris Diaw  6.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.8 spg
C - Tim Duncan  17.6 ppg, 9 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.9 bpg
Key substitutes:  Manu Ginobli (SG), Stephen Jackson (SF), Matt Bonner (PF), Tiago Splitter (C), Gary Neal (SG), Patty Mills (PG), DeJuan Blair (PF)

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
PG - Russell Westbrook  24.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.9 spg
SG - Thabo Sefolosha  3.9 ppg, 1.9 ppg, 1.7 apg, 1 spg
SF - Kevin Durant  26.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 bpg
PF - Serge Ibaka  9.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.7 apg, 3.7 bpg
C - Kendrick Perkins  3.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.9 apg, 1.6 bpg
Key substitutes:  James Harden (SG), Derek Fisher (PG), Nick Collison (PF), Nazr Mohammed (C), Daequan Cook (SG)

As I begin to think about breaking down this series, the Spurs first round defeat to the Memphis Grizzlies last year, 4-2, inevitably comes to mind.  Although this edition of the Spurs and last year's share definite similarities, this is not necessarily fair:  Boris Diaw, Stephen Jackson, and Kawhi Leonard are all important contributors on this year's team who were not Spurs at this time last year, and Manu Ginobli's health certainly was not flawless in 2011.  Even knowing this, I am inclined to believe that the Spurs' model for winning is susceptible to this sort of upset.  The Spurs two greatest advantages at this stage of competition, most would acknowledge, are coaching and depth, since each remaining team probably matches them one through five in terms of talent.  As significant as these two advantages are, I think they are less so the deeper into the playoffs you go.  Throughout the regular season, the Spurs play harder and are coached better than the competition, which has yielded the league's best record in each of the past two seasons.  Even without Rudy Gay, last year's Memphis Grizzlies had no problem with a similar team:  they, too, boasted depth, and had scoring options across the board that made it difficult for Popovich to key in on one glaring weakness as he does so masterfully.  The Spurs' first-round opponent this year, the Jazz, have no such capability:  Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson make up an excellent combination inside, but the Jazz's weak guard-play was all that Pop needed to key in and run the Jazz silly behind Tony Parker en route to a sweep.  The same was true for the Clippers; the Spurs knew that if they could stop Chris Paul, they could minimize Blake Griffin's impact and stymie LA's other team.  Though he will look long and hard, Popovich will find no such obvious key to glorious victory in the tape on the Thunder.

Westbrook, Harden, and especially Durant all present considerable matchup issues for the Spurs.  Who is to guard the lightning-quick Westbrook?  Probably Parker, but not in key situations; he thrives on steals but does not count on-ball defense among his greatest strengths.  If the Spurs bring Danny Green off of the wing to slow Westbrook, then they are short a defender on the perimeter, which becomes an issue the second James Harden enters the game.  Kevin Durant is better described as unguardable than as a matchup issue, as there really isn't a player in this league that is fully equipped to stop him.  Kawhi Leonard, presumably, will try.  This combination, with Ibaka serving as the x-factor with his length and athleticism providing just enough on the inside for the Thunder to achieve some sense of balance, could prove a lethal combination for San Antonio.  For these reasons, I am taking the Thunder in six games, stealing one game in Texas and handling business on their home floor.

Not that I am in any way comfortable picking against the Spurs.  If anyone is capable of finding an answer to whatever challenges Oklahoma City might present, it is he, the most underappreciated piece of San Antonio's success in the Duncan era.  If he can find a combination that works defensively on OKC's three scorers, and if Timmy Duncan can assert himself on the inside, the Spurs win this series.  Moreover, I have a helluva time believing that the Thunder could take game seven in San Antonio.

Time will tell.